Quick Take
Result of Powell Speaking
The US 10-year minus 02 years has reached -100 bps inversion.
The forward growth outlook is a full percentage point lower than the expected policy rate.
Levels of policy error not achieved since February 1980.
Inversion points to a recession, but a larger inversion doesn’t not mean a faster or deeper recession.
While the terminal rate is now forecasted at 5.6% for October 2023 and a 60% probability of a 50bps rate hike during the March FOMC meeting.
US10Y-US02Y: (Source: Bloomberg)Meeting Probabilities: (Source: CME Fed Watch Tool)
Result of Grayscale vs. SEC hearing
So far, GBTC is up roughly 9% today due to the current hearing, Grayscale vs. SEC.
The discount to NAV is roughly 40%, which assumes Grayscale’s chances of a spot ETF have increased.
The gap was as narrow as -35%.
GBTC would have a pathway to convert to NAV.
BTC remains roughly flat for the day at $22,300
GBTC: (Source: TradingView)
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